{"id":2879,"date":"2026-06-09T17:33:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T09:33:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/?p=2879"},"modified":"2026-06-09T17:33:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T09:33:28","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e3%80%8a%e4%bf%a1%e6%81%af%e8%ae%ba%e3%80%81%e6%8e%a8%e7%90%86%e4%b8%8e%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%a0%e7%ae%97%e6%b3%95%e3%80%8b%ef%bc%88david-mackay%ef%bc%89-%e4%bf%a1%e6%81%af%e8%ae%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/?p=2879","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u300a\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u3001\u63a8\u7406\u4e0e\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u300b\uff08David MacKay\uff09\u2014 \u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\/\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4ea4\u53c9\u300b\u9605\u8bfb\u7b14\u8bb0"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\n

\u81ea\u52a8\u751f\u6210 | 2026-06-09 17:33 | \ud83c\udf10 web\u515c\u5e95<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u4e00\u3001\u4f5c\u8005\u4e0e\u80cc\u666f<\/h2>\n

\u6234\u7ef4\u00b7J\u00b7C\u00b7\u9ea6\u51ef\uff08David J.C. MacKay\uff0c1967-2016\uff09\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u5e94\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3001\u82cf\u585e\u514b\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u5f53\u4ee3\u6700\u5177\u539f\u521b\u6027\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a8\u65ad\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u795e\u7ecf\u8ba1\u7b97\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u5747\u6709\u6df1\u523b\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u9ea6\u51ef\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e8c\u3001\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u5bb9<\/h2>\n

\u672c\u4e66\u4ee5\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u4e3a\u9aa8\u67b6\u3001\u4ee5Bayesian\u63a8\u7406\u4e3a\u7075\u9b42\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u5ea7\u8fde\u63a5\u7ecf\u5178\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u4e0e\u73b0\u4ee3\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u6865\u6881\u3002\u5168\u4e66\u53ef\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u5927\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a8\u65ad\u4e0e\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e09\u3001\u7cbe\u534e\u6458\u5f55<\/h2>\n
\n

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\u56db\u3001\u4e3b\u9898\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n

\u4e3b\u9898\u4e00\uff1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u7edf\u4e00\u6027\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u610f\u4e49<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9ea6\u51ef\u5728\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\u6700\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u67d0\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5bf9\u77e5\u8bc6\u7edf\u4e00\u6027\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4e0e\u8df5\u884c\u3002\u5728\u672c\u4e66\u95ee\u4e16\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u3001\u901a\u4fe1\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5f7c\u6b64\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\uff0c\u5404\u6709\u5404\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4f20\u7edf\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9ea6\u51ef\u4ee5Bayesian\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e3a\u7ebd\u5e26\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u4e4b\u95f4\u6df1\u5c42\u7684\u540c\u6784\u5173\u7cfb\uff1a\u4fe1\u606f\u538b\u7f29\u4e0e\u63a8\u7406\u662f\u4e92\u9006\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4fe1\u9053\u5bb9\u91cf\u4e0e\u5b66\u4e60\u80fd\u529b\u5171\u4eab\u540c\u4e00\u6570\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u6700\u5c0f\u63cf\u8ff0\u957f\u5ea6\u539f\u5219\u4e0eBayesian\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7edf\u4e00\u4e0d\u662f\u8868\u9762\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u501f\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6df1\u5c42\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u540c\u4f26\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u662f\u201c\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u6700\u4f18\u51b3\u7b56\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u6839\u672c\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u4fa7\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u7edf\u4e00\u6027\u5177\u6709\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u5b83\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u73b0\u8868\u9762\u73b0\u8c61\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5c06\u770b\u4f3c\u8fe5\u5f02\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u7eb3\u5165\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u4ece\u4e9a\u91cc\u58eb\u591a\u5fb7\u7684\u8303\u7574\u5206\u7c7b\u5230\u725b\u987f\u7684\u4e07\u6709\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u4ece\u9ea6\u514b\u65af\u97e6\u7684\u7535\u78c1\u7edf\u4e00\u5230\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u76f8\u5bf9\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u53f2\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u7edf\u4e00\u53f2\u3002\u9ea6\u51ef\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u7ee7\u627f\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f1f\u5927\u4f20\u7edf\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u4e3a\u65b0\u7684\u7edf\u4e00\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u5c06\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u63a8\u5411\u65b0\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e3b\u9898\u4e8c\uff1aBayesian\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u610f\u8574<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672c\u4e66\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e3b\u9898\u662f\u5bf9Bayesian\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u8fa9\u62a4\u3002\u9ea6\u51ef\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u6280\u672f\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5021\u5bfc\u8005\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u54f2\u5b66\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u8be0\u91ca\u8005\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0cBayesian\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6d1e\u89c1\u5728\u4e8e\uff1a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0d\u662f\u5e94\u5f53\u88ab\u6d88\u9664\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u7279\u5f81\uff1b\u63a8\u7406\u4e0d\u662f\u4ece\u786e\u5b9a\u8d70\u5411\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u6f14\u7ece\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ece\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u8d70\u5411\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u5f52\u7eb3\u3002\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u662f\u9891\u7387\u7684\u7b80\u5316\u8868\u8fbe\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u5408\u7406\u5ea6\u91cf\uff1b\u5148\u9a8c\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3b\u89c2\u4efb\u610f\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5bf9\u5df2\u6709\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u7cbe\u786e\u7f16\u7801\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u7acb\u573a\u4e0e\u53e4\u5178\u6982\u7387\u54f2\u5b66\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u5bf9\u7167\u3002\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u6d3e\u4e3b\u5f20\u6982\u7387\u662f\u5927\u91cf\u91cd\u590d\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u9891\u7387\uff0c\u6392\u65a5\u5bf9\u5355\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8d4b\u4e88\u6982\u7387\u3002\u9ea6\u51ef\u5219\u8bba\u8bc1\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u67d0\u6b21\u629b\u786c\u5e01\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5b58\u7591\u65f6\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u523b\u753b\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u77e5\u8bc6\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u7684\u5408\u7406\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u8ba4\u77e5\u6982\u7387\u201d\u7684\u8be0\u91ca\u5e76\u975e\u4e3b\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e3b\u4f53\u82e5\u62e5\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u548c\u80cc\u666f\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e94\u5f53\u5f97\u51fa\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5224\u65ad\u3002Bayesian\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u89c4\u8303\u6027\u529b\u91cf\u6b63\u5728\u4e8e\u6b64\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4ece\u8bc1\u636e\u5230\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u7406\u6027\u8f6c\u6362\u89c4\u5219\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u5730\u770b\uff0cBayesian\u6846\u67b6\u8574\u542b\u7740\u4e00\u79cd\u77e5\u8bc6\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u8c26\u900a\u4e0e\u5f00\u653e\u3002\u5b83\u627f\u8ba4\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6c38\u8fdc\u662f\u4e34\u65f6\u7684\u3001\u6982\u7387\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u6c38\u8fdc\u6709\u5f85\u4e8e\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u53ef\u9519\u8bba\u201d\u7acb\u573a\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u5b9e\u5728\u8bba\u7684\u5f20\u529b\uff0c\u6070\u6070\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u6240\u5728\u2014\u2014\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u627f\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u65e0\u77e5\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e94\u3001\u4e2a\u4eba\u611f\u609f<\/h2>\n

\u9605\u8bfb\u9ea6\u51ef\u6b64\u4e66\uff0c\u6700\u4ee4\u6211\u89e6\u52a8\u7684\u662f\u77e5\u8bc6\u7edf\u4e00\u6027\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u667a\u8bc6\u6109\u60a6\u3002\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u6240\u53d7\u7684\u6559\u80b2\u5c06\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5272\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\uff1a\u6570\u5b66\u662f\u6570\u5b66\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u662f\u7269\u7406\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b66\u79d1\u6709\u5176\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u53d6\u5411\uff0c\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\u5f80\u5f80\u6d41\u4e8e\u8868\u9762\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9ea6\u51ef\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u7a7f\u900f\u8868\u5c42\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u76f4\u62b5\u6570\u5b66\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u6df1\u5904\uff0c\u4fbf\u80fd\u53d1\u73b0\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u5b66\u79d1\u8fb9\u754c\u6240\u906e\u853d\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u8054\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f53\u4ee3\u77e5\u8bc6\u751f\u4ea7\u5177\u6709\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u542f\u793a\u3002\u5728\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u6df1\u7684\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u66f4\u9700\u8981\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u8005\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u4e9b\u80fd\u591f\u8de8\u8d8a\u9886\u57df\u8fb9\u754c\u3001\u5728\u66f4\u9ad8\u5c42\u6b21\u4e0a\u7edf\u6444\u5168\u5c40\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u3002\u9ea6\u51ef\u672c\u4eba\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5178\u8303\uff1a\u4ed6\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u8bad\u7ec3\u8d4b\u4e88\u4ed6\u5904\u7406\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5b66\u80cc\u666f\u4f7f\u4ed6\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u7406\u8bba\u4ed8\u8bf8\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u5173\u5207\u5219\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u62c5\u5f53\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u611f\u609f\u6d89\u53caBayesian\u601d\u7ef4\u5bf9\u65e5\u5e38\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u542f\u793a\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u5929\u7136\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u2014\u2014\u8981\u4e48\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u6000\u7591\uff1b\u8981\u4e48\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u653e\u5f03\u3002\u7136\u800c\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u6982\u7387\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0b\u7684\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u9009\u62e9\u3002Bayesian\u6846\u67b6\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u6210\u719f\u7684\u5fc3\u667a\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u627f\u8ba4\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u5728\u8bc1\u636e\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e2d\u9010\u6b65\u63a5\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u4e5f\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u3001\u804c\u4e1a\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u4eba\u9645\u4ea4\u5f80\u7b49\u4eba\u751f\u8bf8\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n

\u516d\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8054\u7cfb<\/h2>\n

\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u6839\u57fa\u53ef\u8ffd\u6eaf\u81f3\u591a\u6761\u601d\u60f3\u6e90\u6d41\uff0c\u5176\u878d\u5408\u65b9\u5f0f\u672c\u8eab\u5373\u4e3a\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u5178\u8303\u3002<\/p>\n

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