{"id":2741,"date":"2026-06-09T04:40:45","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T20:40:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/?p=2741"},"modified":"2026-06-09T04:40:45","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T20:40:45","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e5%8f%8d%e8%84%86%e5%bc%b1%ef%bc%88nassim-taleb%ef%bc%89-%e4%b8%8d%e7%a1%ae%e5%ae%9a%e6%80%a7%e6%80%9d%e7%bb%b4%e3%80%8b%e9%98%85%e8%af%bb%e7%ac%94%e8%ae%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/?p=2741","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\uff08Nassim Taleb\uff09\u2014 \u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u300b\u9605\u8bfb\u7b14\u8bb0"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\uff08Nassim Taleb\uff09\u2014 \u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u300b\u9605\u8bfb\u7b14\u8bb0<\/h1>\n
\n

\u81ea\u52a8\u751f\u6210 | 2026-06-09 04:40 | \ud83e\udd16 LLM\u76f4\u751f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u9605\u8bfb\u7b14\u8bb0<\/h1>\n

\u4e00\u3001\u4f5c\u8005\u4e0e\u80cc\u666f<\/h2>\n

\u7eb3\u897f\u59c6\u00b7\u5c3c\u53e4\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\uff08Nassim Nicholas Taleb\uff09\uff0c\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u88d4\u7f8e\u56fd\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e13\u5bb6\u3001\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u5e93\u6717\u6570\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u517c\u804c\u6559\u6388\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4ece\u4e8b\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4eb2\u53861987\u5e74\u80a1\u5e02\u5d29\u76d8\u4e0e2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u51ed\u501f\u5bf9”\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45”\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7cbe\u51c6\u7814\u5224\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u4e8e\u4e16\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u5c06\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0e\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u601d\u8fa8\u7194\u4e8e\u4e00\u7089\u3002\u4ed6\u4e00\u751f\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u5c40\u9650\uff0c\u8457\u6709”\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e09\u90e8\u66f2”\uff1a\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u300a\u968f\u673a\u6f2b\u6b65\u7684\u50bb\u74dc\u300b\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u54f2\u5b66\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5199\u4f5c\u6b64\u4e66\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u5df2\u6d1e\u89c1\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u81f4\u547d\u76f2\u70b9\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u8ffd\u6c42\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0e\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b63\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u524a\u5f31\u81ea\u8eab\u5e94\u5bf9\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4e66\u540d”Antifragile”\u7531\u4ed6\u81ea\u521b\uff0c\u610f\u4e3a\u8d85\u8d8a\u5f3a\u97e7\u6027\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u4ec5\u514d\u4e8e\u53d7\u635f\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u4ece\u6df7\u4e71\u4e0e\u538b\u529b\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u5bb9<\/h2>\n

\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u5f00\u7bc7\u5373\u629b\u51fa\u98a0\u8986\u6027\u6d1e\u89c1\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u6240\u63cf\u7ed8\u7684\u90a3\u822c\u6e29\u987a\u53ef\u63a7\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531”\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6”\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u4e9b\u6781\u5176\u7f55\u89c1\u5374\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u610f\u5916\u2014\u2014\u6240\u4e3b\u5bfc\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u5e38\u89c4\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u5374\u5bf9\u771f\u6b63\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u89c6\u800c\u4e0d\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u5c06\u4e16\u95f4\u4e07\u7269\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u7c7b\uff1a\u8106\u5f31\u7684\uff08\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\u5219\u53d7\u635f\uff09\u3001\u5f3a\u97e7\u7684\uff08\u6297\u51b2\u51fb\u800c\u5b58\u7eed\uff09\u3001\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u7684\uff08\u501f\u51b2\u51fb\u800c\u6210\u957f\uff09\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u6587\u660e\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u9519\u8bef\u5728\u4e8e\uff1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f18\u5316\u3001\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5c06\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u5c42\u5c42\u7d2f\u79ef\uff0c\u5982\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cbe\u5bc6\u5374\u4e0d\u582a\u4e00\u51fb\u7684\u673a\u68b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u4ee5”\u8106\u5f31\u63a8\u624b”\u6279\u5224\u90a3\u4e9b\u8bd5\u56fe\u6d88\u9664\u968f\u673a\u6027\u3001\u5426\u8ba4\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u6027\u7684\u7406\u6027\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u2014\u2014\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5584\u610f\u4e4b\u4e3e\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5236\u9020\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u63d0\u51fa\u6760\u94c3\u7b56\u7565\u4f5c\u4e3a\u884c\u52a8\u6307\u5357\uff1a\u5728\u4e24\u7aef\u5e03\u5c40\u4ee5\u89c4\u907f\u4e2d\u95f4\u98ce\u9669\uff1b\u5021\u5bfc”\u6797\u591a\u6548\u5e94”\u2014\u2014\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u8fc7\u727a\u7272\u5c40\u90e8\u8106\u5f31\u6362\u53d6\u6574\u4f53\u5f3a\u97e7\uff1b\u4e3b\u5f20\u4ece\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5f92\u52b3\u5730\u8bd5\u56fe\u6d88\u9664\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u5957\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0e\u751f\u5b58\u667a\u6167\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u53cd\u601d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e09\u3001\u7cbe\u534e\u6458\u5f55<\/h2>\n
\n

“\u98ce\u80fd\u7184\u706d\u8721\u70db\uff0c\u5374\u80fd\u4f7f\u706b\u8d8a\u70e7\u8d8a\u65fa\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u3002”<\/p>\n

“\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8ba9\u4e16\u754c\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u8106\u5f31\u3002”<\/p>\n

“\u4f60\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6bd4\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u3002”<\/p>\n

“\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u662f\u6240\u6709\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\u5230\u4eba\u7c7b\u809d\u810f\uff0c\u83ab\u4e0d\u5982\u6b64\u3002”<\/p>\n

“\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4ea7\u751f\u4e8e\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u4e4b\u4e0b\u3002”<\/p>\n

“\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6700\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u6700\u4e95\u7136\u6709\u5e8f\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002”<\/p>\n

“\u53ea\u6709\u4f60\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u624d\u80fd\u4e0d\u518d\u4f24\u5bb3\u4f60\u3002”<\/p>\n

“\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f18\u5316\u662f\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u6839\u6e90\u3002”<\/p>\n

“\u6760\u94c3\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u662f\uff1a\u5728\u4e24\u7aef\u5e03\u5c40\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e2d\u95f4\u9677\u9631\u3002”<\/p>\n

“\u8106\u5f31\u63a8\u624b\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u4e9b\u8bd5\u56fe\u6d88\u9664\u968f\u673a\u6027\u7684\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u5236\u9020\u4e86\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u56db\u3001\u4e3b\u9898\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n

\u4e3b\u9898\u4e00\uff1a\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u9690\u853d\u6027\u4e0e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u6700\u6df1\u9083\u7684\u6d1e\u89c1\u5728\u4e8e\u63ed\u793a\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u9690\u853d\u672c\u8d28\u3002\u8106\u5f31\u5e76\u975e\u663e\u89c1\u4e8e\u8868\u9762\u7684\u88c2\u75d5\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6f5c\u85cf\u4e8e\u770b\u4f3c\u7a33\u56fa\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6df1\u5904\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u96c6\u4e2d\u4f53\u73b0\u4e8e\u5bf9”\u9884\u6d4b”\u7684\u76f2\u76ee\u5d07\u62dc\u2014\u2014\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u3001\u4e94\u5e74\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u7686\u662f\u8106\u5f31\u63a8\u624b\u7684\u6770\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5e72\u9884\u4e0e\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f18\u5316\u662f\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u6839\u6e90\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5177\u6709\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7406\u6027\u5374\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ee5\u7ebf\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u9a7e\u9a6d\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u4ed6\u4ee5\u533b\u6e90\u6027\u635f\u5bb3\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6cbb\u7597\u975e\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u6d88\u9664\u75be\u75c5\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u4eba\u4f53\u7684\u81ea\u6108\u80fd\u529b\uff1b\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5e72\u9884\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u975e\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d1e\u89c1\u76f4\u6307\u73b0\u4ee3\u6027\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6096\u8bba\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u8ffd\u6c42\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5236\u9020\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u8fdc\u8d85\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e3b\u9898\u4e8c\uff1a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u751f\u547d\u54f2\u5b66<\/strong><\/p>\n

“\u53cd\u8106\u5f31”\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u751f\u547d\u54f2\u5b66\u3002\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u5b58\u5728\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1a\u673a\u68b0\u4f53\u8ffd\u6c42\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0e\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u6709\u673a\u4f53\u5219\u62e5\u62b1\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u538b\u529b\u3002\u751f\u547d\u7684\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u8fdb\u5316\u3001\u6210\u957f\u4e0e\u9002\u5e94\u4e4b\u4e2d\u2014\u2014\u808c\u8089\u5728\u6495\u88c2\u540e\u8d85\u91cf\u6062\u590d\uff0c\u514d\u75ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u63a5\u89e6\u75c5\u539f\u540e\u5efa\u7acb\u9632\u5fa1\uff0c\u795e\u7ecf\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u9002\u5ea6\u523a\u6fc0\u4e0b\u589e\u5f3a\u8ba4\u77e5\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u54f2\u5b66\u8574\u542b\u7740\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u542f\u793a\uff1a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5f3a\u97e7\u4e0d\u662f\u6d88\u9664\u8106\u5f31\u3001\u89c4\u907f\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u9002\u5ea6\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u6fc0\u53d1\u6f5c\u80fd\u3001\u4fdd\u6301\u5197\u4f59\u3002\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u6240\u8bf4\u7684”\u6797\u591a\u6548\u5e94”\u2014\u2014\u5197\u4f59\u5e76\u975e\u6d6a\u8d39\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u4fdd\u969c\u2014\u2014\u4e0e\u9053\u5bb6”\u4e3a\u800c\u4e0d\u5bb0”\u7684\u667a\u6167\u76f8\u901a\uff0c\u4ea6\u547c\u5e94\u4e86\u65af\u5bbe\u8bfa\u838e\u5173\u4e8e”\u627f\u53d7\u591a\u79cd\u5f71\u54cd”\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e94\u3001\u4e2a\u4eba\u611f\u609f<\/h2>\n

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\u516d\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8054\u7cfb<\/h2>\n

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\u4e03\u3001\u540e\u7eed\u8ba1\u5212<\/h2>\n

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\u8ba4\u77e5\u5c42\u9762<\/strong>\uff1a\u5efa\u7acb”\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u68c0\u67e5\u6e05\u5355”\uff0c\u91cd\u5927\u51b3\u7b56\u524d\u81ea\u95ee\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e00\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u8fd8\u662f\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff1f\u662f\u5426\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u5355\u4e00\u8def\u5f84\uff1f\u662f\u5426\u4fdd\u6301\u4e86\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u5197\u4f59\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u8df5\u5c42\u9762<\/strong>\uff1a\u6760\u94c3\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u5e94\u7528\u2014\u2014\u8d22\u52a1\u4e0a\u4fdd\u6301\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u9002\u5ea6\u63a2\u7d22\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u673a\u4f1a\uff1b\u4e13\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0a\u6df1\u8015\u6838\u5fc3\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u6301\u8de8\u754c\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u6027\uff1b\u65f6\u95f4\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0a\u4ece”\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8ba1\u5212”\u8f6c\u5411”\u5feb\u901f\u8fed\u4ee3”\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u8bd5\u9519\u4e0e\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n

\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u63a7<\/strong>\uff1a\u8b66\u60d5\u4e09\u7c7b\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u9677\u9631\u2014\u2014\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f18\u5316\u67d0\u4e00\u6280\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\uff1b\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u5355\u4e00\u6536\u5165\u6765\u6e90\uff1b\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8ffd\u6c42\u7a33\u5b9a\u800c\u4e27\u5931\u6210\u957f\u5f39\u6027\u3002\u6bcf\u5b63\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u81ea\u68c0\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

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\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\uff08Nassim Taleb\uff09\u2014 \u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u300b\u9605\u8bfb\u7b14\u8bb0 \u81ea\u52a8\u751f\u6210 | 2026-06-09 04:40 […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2741"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2741\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2742,"href":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2741\/revisions\/2742"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deepbule.store\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}